Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

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Arch
Posts: 213
Joined: Wed May 01, 2013 10:23 pm

Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by Arch » Sat Jun 08, 2013 6:10 pm

I was having a conversation on twitter last night about whether it would be profitable over the last few Kings season to bet a 4.00 odds "No goal 1st pd" prop on LA games with a Under U4.5+12O ish type total for whole game, So Im wondering if PLP or anyone has the data from atleast 2 years worth of LA games to see if it was even possible to blindly flat bet such games and profit with 4.00 odds on the 1st PD no goal prop. I believe the 4.00 odds is +EV with a larger sample size then the 16 games we have to use for LAs playoff run. Right now blind betting it would make u even but had someone adjusted betsize based on edge% it may be better or worse with the small sample size for the playoffs.
Anyway thx in Advance and Im curious to see what PLP and others Data says for 2 seasons of Kings games

MattyKGB
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Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by MattyKGB » Sun Jun 09, 2013 9:28 pm

We can use Poisson to answer this question quite easily. If you can research the answer to one question for me, I can help you with all of the math and give you a very accurate answer:

What percentage of this season's NHL goals were scored in the first period? Looking at the entire season, not just Kings games.

Arch
Posts: 213
Joined: Wed May 01, 2013 10:23 pm

Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by Arch » Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:33 am

MattyKGB wrote:We can use Poisson to answer this question quite easily. If you can research the answer to one question for me, I can help you with all of the math and give you a very accurate answer:

What percentage of this season's NHL goals were scored in the first period? Looking at the entire season, not just Kings games.
Your a 100% right Matty that is a great starting point with just 1 season. Im thinking the 2011-2012 season would be better to use then this years for obvious reasons. The hard part is getting the Data for this LOL but I will do some searching and post the question on my twitter to see if any PuckHeads have that data already.

Thanks for the Reply Matty and lets hope PLP,Chin or the others can chime in aswell about the 4.00 odds prop on "no 1st pd goals" being profitable in games with low totals ie Kings games.

Arch
Posts: 213
Joined: Wed May 01, 2013 10:23 pm

Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by Arch » Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:12 am

Found this interesting site. http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/ ... stats.html

LAK Defence allowed around 25 shots pergame this year I think and Quick had a very good save % in the link above for 2011-2012. Im sure alot of the goals he let in were more in the late stages of the game. Pinny had a O/U prop this playoffs on 1st goal Over or Under 10 mins? and over was always a strong fav ie over -125ish.

Still trying to find the data on what % of last seasons NHL goals were scored in 1st period but just wanted to post that link I found. I even tweeted them about having the accurate data for Matty's question. So who knows maybe they will reply back to me about it.

MattyKGB
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Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by MattyKGB » Mon Jun 10, 2013 8:52 pm

NHL goals by period (thanks NFLSurvivor):

1125 in period 1
1332 in period 2
1300 in period 3
65 in OT
97 in shootout (we have to count these too because they count towards the game totals)

So 28.7% of all goals are scored in period 1.

For a game with a total of 4.5 o-130 u+120, the odds imply a 44.6% probability of going under 4.5. A Poisson process with a parameter of 4.970 also has a 44.6% probability of going under 4.5, so we can model the entire game as a Poisson process with a parameter of 4.970.

If 28.7% of all goals are scored in period 1, then we can assume that 1st period goals also follow a Poisson distribution with parameter 4.970 x 0.287 = 1.426.

Then, the probability of 0 goals in the 1st period is exp(-1.426) = 0.240, making your prop paying 4.00 a -3.9% edge.

Arch
Posts: 213
Joined: Wed May 01, 2013 10:23 pm

Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by Arch » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:15 pm

Thanks for all your help lads (Bang And Matty).

Im assuming this % would be around the same for a little bigger sample size aswell.

So for LA Kings games were the draw is around +285 ish and U4.5 at +115 at best u have a slight +EV prop at 4.00 odds I take it?

Anyway I will post the findings of this on twitter and once again Thank u Bang and Matty for helping us get a more accurate understanding of the prop in question.

MattyKGB
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Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by MattyKGB » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:22 pm

You'd need a total in the neighbourhood of 4.5 o-118 u+108 for that 1st period prop to be breakeven @ 4.00.

Arch
Posts: 213
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Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by Arch » Mon Jun 10, 2013 9:41 pm

Thx Matty seems a little off but I trust you did every calculation correct.

I just figured for Kings games it may of been +EV not just because of a low total but because they dont score alot of goals in general nevermind there low 1st pd goal%, and the LA D only allow 24-25 shots per game with Quick stopping over 92% of those.

But this is why I asked for help on this because in the back of my mind I felt I could actually be wrong assuming 4.00 Odds was a good edge for that prop. I know the prop market #s are not as sharp as major market lines so maybe It is a sligh edge but "maybe" is not good enough reason to risk$. I never bet this prop but someone on twitter who goes by the name "Brinks" who Both I and Matty are familiar with bet "some" of the Kings games and says he made a small Return. Based on Matty #s its seems it may have been more "Luck" then any true advantage over the prop odds.

ChinMusic
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Re: Need PLPs help or anyone else with data

Post by ChinMusic » Mon Jun 17, 2013 11:30 pm

Arch wrote:[quote="MattyKGB"Thanks for the Reply Matty and lets hope PLP,Chin or the others can chime in aswell about the 4.00 odds prop on "no 1st pd goals" being profitable in games with low totals ie Kings games.
Sorry I just noticed this thread now. Matty's answer looks just fine, I have nothing to add.

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