Biden at 1.50?

[ProlinePlayer]

I would think that Biden at 1.50 (Betfair, but I assume much the same elsewhere) must be a plus ev spot? I can't see Trump having a 1 in 3 shot at being reelected.

What do you guys think?

PLP

[AcesFaces]

I Agree with you. I have Biden at -150 (1.67) and I got it a few days ago.

I think its a great spot.

ACE

[ProlinePlayer]

where did you find the 1.67 Ace?

PLP

[richhhh]

What a daunting task trying to price this PLP. Just to much to adsorb. My fat kid point would agree with you.


The polls clearly show Biden the winner very much so with the popular vote less so with key states but large either way. Nate silver from what I see does thw work of pricing the probability of a trump win and has him at 12%. He uses polling data and very much appears to know what is doing. I would not personally bet his numbers as I have no idea how accurate he is. He just appears to me from the couple times I have visited site to be knowledgeable and unbias.

So that gets trump to 12%.How do we get trump to 33%.
Me talking outloud below.

I assume he is going to cheat anyway possible . I assume he does not accept any results other then him winning. I also assume him and his cronies have a last minute wild smear attack to give some voters a moral justification for voting for him regardless if they know it is not true. Just give me a reason any reason so I can look at myself in the mirror type thing.
The polls were wrong and trump shy voters have been largely debunked for 2016.Maybe some evidence of this but not much the way I understand it . So in theory they should again be accurate and Biden should win. I personally do not believe this to be true. They can be wrong this time. Some have likely learned in the last 4 years they get scolded less if they just do not mention they are trump fans. Kinda like how many of us do not mention we gamble successfully to friends and family. In generally there is a stigma with gambling and its easier to not mention it . Of coarse this is two sided but in general shy trumpers have got to outweigh shy Bidens.


Dunno how much probability this adds to a trump win of 12% or maybe Nate silver has factored this in. But more then 0% I think? lol


I will go nowhere with this market.

[AcesFaces]

where did you find the 1.67 Ace?

PLP

Got this at B365

[AcesFaces]

What a daunting task trying to price this PLP. Just to much to adsorb. My fat kid point would agree with you.


The polls clearly show Biden the winner very much so with the popular vote less so with key states but large either way. Nate silver from what I see does thw work of pricing the probability of a trump win and has him at 12%. He uses polling data and very much appears to know what is doing. I would not personally bet his numbers as I have no idea how accurate he is. He just appears to me from the couple times I have visited site to be knowledgeable and unbias.

So that gets trump to 12%.How do we get trump to 33%.
Me talking outloud below.

I assume he is going to cheat anyway possible . I assume he does not accept any results other then him winning. I also assume him and his cronies have a last minute wild smear attack to give some voters a moral justification for voting for him regardless if they know it is not true. Just give me a reason any reason so I can look at myself in the mirror type thing.
The polls were wrong and trump shy voters have been largely debunked for 2016.Maybe some evidence of this but not much the way I understand it . So in theory they should again be accurate and Biden should win. I personally do not believe this to be true. They can be wrong this time. Some have likely learned in the last 4 years they get scolded less if they just do not mention they are trump fans. Kinda like how many of us do not mention we gamble successfully to friends and family. In generally there is a stigma with gambling and its easier to not mention it . Of coarse this is two sided but in general shy trumpers have got to outweigh shy Bidens.


Dunno how much probability this adds to a trump win of 12% or maybe Nate silver has factored this in. But more then 0% I think? lol


I will go nowhere this market.

Hey richhh,

I agree with your points, the only reason I got on this was because the rules on the sportsbook indicate that it is winner on the day of the election (who gets elected), and that's the result that is paid out.

I have a feeling Biden wins at the polls and then trump takes the ruling to the supreme court and cheats his way back into office, but that means my bet gets paid and I'm okay with that haha

[tshi2015]

So ALC has Biden win at 1.5, but then winning party (democrat) at 1.45, and trump to be elected (no) at 1.45. Looks like time to load up biden at 1.5 lol?

[richhhh]

Its looks like a great bet aces. I really hope you win .
What Trump does if he loses is going to be something to watch. Its possible he pardons himself for a crime he has committed. Not saying he has committed any but he has certainly been accused of them.

[ProlinePlayer]

I'm not sure of the exact rules on Betfair. it just says '2020 Elections - Next President'. So which side gets paid if Biden wins the election but Trump refuses to leave?

How about this one - Pence at 1000-1.
This is how we do it.
1. Trump wins.
2. Before being sworn in he has a Covid relapse and dies.
3. Don't know but i assume Pence then gets sworn in as president?
Not a likely scenerio but say $10 to win $10,000?

PLP

[leoj]

Biden -193 at Pinnacle.

I started wagering on Trump in 2019 and am holding a large position at around +100.

Was looking good until covid -19.

Trump was as high as -180 in February of this year then odds gradually shifted as the pandemic progressed.

His response didn't help.