Biden at 1.50?

[ChinMusic]

Does anybody else here read fivethirtyeight.com? It's my go to spot for US election forecasts. They have Biden at 89% to win. If correct, would imply a 35% edge for the current Pinnacle payout of 1.518.

[zoo99]

https://twitter.com/BartHanson/status/1 ... 68064?s=09

This guy that posted on nate silvers twiter says he has 200k riding on outcomes, he's attached his chart with wagers and precieved EV

[zoo99]

All based on nates modelling, some big +ev numbers on Florida etc that are even higher then national, personally I'm looking at Florida, Georgia,Texas, Ohio and Wisconsin. Also if you read a lot of his articles you will find that a lot of these geographical states are correlated historically so if biden wins x state it increases the odds dramatically that he wins other correlated states. To bad proline didn't have this election as parlays would be HUGE +EV

[zoo99]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirty ... vania/amp/

Here's a good article on some corellated states based on his modelling

[zoo99]

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president

This projection site has Biden at 97%

This site also has a neat interactive correlation graph for the states. Pick a state and see which are most to least correalated.

"Our model also simulates what would happen if the race moves, or the polls are biased, in similar amounts in like states. We calculate similarity between states by comparing their demographic and political profiles, such as the share of white voters who live there, how religious they are and how urban or rural the state is."

[tshi2015]

I put $20 on Biden at 1.5 on ALC just for entertainment.

ALC did offer a while back bet on individual state, but now they switched it to one bet only. Should've thought about the correlated play back then.

[sharpedgepicks]

Silver had Hillary at over 90% when she was 75% and lost. He also predicts sports and sometimes has teams at 70%+ chance to win in pick'em games, so take his modelling with two grains of salt. He models, he doesn't bet his money.

[zoo99]

Silver had Hillary at over 90% when she was 75% and lost. He also predicts sports and sometimes has teams at 70%+ chance to win in pick'em games, so take his modelling with two grains of salt. He models, he doesn't bet his money.

Well the Falcons had a 98-99 % of winning the Superbowl a few months after that election according to some oddsmakers and we all know how that turned out, upsets happen. One comment I read rings true, even at 90% it's by no means a lock, how confident would you feel boarding a plane knowing that you had "only" a 10% chance of crashing.

[richhhh]

Sharp can see past the underdog winning. I think the point he was trying to make was that if Nate Silver is setting a probability for a sports game that is a pickem online at 70% it raises concerns for the election probability's.
I do not see any sports prediction from Nate silver . So I dunno what exactly is being referenced here. I will also note I believe Nate was one of few giving Trump a chance in 2016. My mind is polluted with hatred for Orange Man. I am holding my position to not bet this and drink beer watching CNN on Tuesday.

[zoo99]

I can't speak for any of his sports modeling as I've never seen it, but if we're talking elections pollsters have historically been within their built in margin of errors for all sorts of elections at all different levels of government in all different countries and he takes this to another level with his modelling which takes in a multitude of other factors which one would assume lowers the margin of error. The 2016 presidential election in the states was a huge outlier but it happens.
Personally I think Trump will get destroyed just like the
Republicans did in the mid-terms in 2018 before the Covid shit show, but should be an interesting night and or weeks.