MLB PROPS CARD #71 - BOS @ TOR - April 30, 2013 @ 7:00PM

[P-Line Pinner]

Baseball Props

Close Date: Apr 30 7:00PM
Play Period: Apr 30 to Apr 30 CARD 71

NO. TEAM/PART PROP. OV OV/UN UN


BOS@TOR A30

1 DPED Hits 1.50 1.0 2.00
2 JARE Hits 1.55 0.5 1.90
3 BLAW Hits 1.80 1.0 1.60
4 ORTZ RBatIn 1.65 0.5 1.75
5 EENC RBatIn 1.90 0.5 1.55
6 JBAU RBatIn 1.80 0.5 1.60
7 JLES Strkout 1.65 5.5 1.75
8 BMOR Strkout 1.70 4.5 1.70
9 BOS Hits 1.80 9.0 1.60
10 BOS PtchThrw 1.70 139.5 1.70

Apologies if this isn't the direction this forum intends to go....just thought we should start posting some cards/lists to get peoples thoughts & plays

Pinner

[P-Line Pinner]

Pedroia @ 2.0 fer the under looks good to me. Might add Ortiz under @ 1.75, even though he's been hot since returning. Not a fan of the RBI props tho...

Still digging.

Pinz

[ProlinePlayer]

Apologies if this isn't the direction this forum intends to go....just thought we should start posting some cards/lists to get peoples thoughts & plays

Pinner

No apologies needed

It is very much one of the things I want to see on the forum.

I suspect that it may be slow for the early days but hopefully discussion in a daily lines thread will be active.

Thanks for getting today's started

PLP

[bangminton]

Good luck Pinner, I wonder if any Props is LLE yet? Boston will play all 9 innings and is also a favorite so I'm undecided on Team Hits @ 9.

Hope there will be more participation, it will take time as we are all creatures of habits and there are now 4 ProLine forums with similar threads.

[MattyKGB]

Most props cards to date, I've been able to find an edge in which I've been reasonably confident. Not so today, so this card is a pass for me.

I came up with pretty good numbers for the hits+LOB and hits+pitches correlations, both of which were promptly yanked so like PLP I'm hesitant to put a lot more time in. But I am enjoying these props cards because it's near impossible to come up with a card of 9 or 10 props where none of them are correlated - that's just the nature of baseball. So looking forward to more opportunities to come.

[LordCC]

Matty

If you were to play this card, which props would you go with? I am curious to hear your insight into it as I haven't been able to grasp how to go about figuring what to play or not to play.

Thanks in advance!

[MattyKGB]

Matty

If you were to play this card, which props would you go with? I am curious to hear your insight into it as I haven't been able to grasp how to go about figuring what to play or not to play.

Thanks in advance!

Best advice I can offer to someone without a statistical model or historical database is to look for correlated plays. This won't guarantee you an edge, but it will give you a good chance of finding one.

Examples of correlated props:

Same team hits + LOB (gone)
Team hits + opposing team pitches (could be gone)
Team hits + player hits on same team
Team hits + player RBI on same team
Team pitches + player hits on opposing team
Team pitches + player RBI on opposing team
Pitcher strikeouts over + Opposing team hits/RBI under, or vice versa (Pitcher's strikeouts are largely determined by how many innings he pitches, and innings he pitches is largely determined by how many runs and hits he gives up)
Player hits + Player RBI on same team, if the RBI guy comes after the hits guy in the batting order
Player hits + Player hits on same team (they are both correlated with how good of a game the opposing pitcher is having...think of it like a blackjack table where your results are correlated with your neighbour's because you're playing against the same dealer's hand)

I hope that helps, good luck.

[ProlinePlayer]

Hope there will be more participation, it will take time as we are all creatures of habits and there are now 4 ProLine forums with similar threads.

It will probably take a bit of time for these daily threads to become more active. I didn't realise that there were 4 other proline forums around.

Not that it matters, I'm aiming for a different approach here.
Quality instead of just quantity.

As I look through the list of members who have joined up on the first day I'd say we're already getting that. Great to see all the posters from the BigTip finding their way here!

PLP

[bangminton]

Hope there will be more participation, it will take time as we are all creatures of habits and there are now 4 ProLine forums with similar threads.

It will probably take a bit of time for these daily threads to become more active. I didn't realise that there were 4 other proline forums around.

Not that it matters, I'm aiming for a different approach here.
Quality instead of just quantity.

As I look through the list of members who have joined up on the first day I'd say we're already getting that. Great to see all the posters from the BigTip finding their way here!

PLP

Yes PLP with your new forum, there are now 4 active ProLine forums kicking around. I won't name them because I think in due time this forum will rise above the others and resemble the old BigTip in terms of quality posters but just a FYI, the new BigTip or shall I say TipMix is still fully functional and many old BigTip members continue to post there to this day.

With all that said, I agree with you quality above quantity. I hope the new climate won't deter folks from posting their thoughts and plays. As Chin and Matty alluded in the Props LLE thread, it is really a catch-22: You want to get your plays in early before any OTB/LLE before posting anything to help other posters learn and tail. The OLG has been very quick in responding to errors/mistakes and I guess we just have to keep an open mind and stay on our toes at all times.

Continued success!