I'm new here, not sure where I heard this, but I read someone saying that if they have alot of push games in their parlays, they rather add in box games to increase the payout. I decided to do this, mainly thinking it could increase the payout and second would not have to wake up at 6am to put in my 5 team parlays. Instead I would sleep in and do my 7 team parlays much later in the day since they are still not lle.
I did calculations (basically just using the binomial theorem) to see if there is a parlay that contains many +/- 1 games to see if boxing extra games will increase the payout for the parlay. Conclusion, it does not.
If you decide to box games because of alot of "push" games, I recommend that you don't.
If you need to box games into your parlay, say because the combination goes lle, then I recommend boxing in at least 2 games (from a 5 team parlay). But be warned, you will be losing about 7.5% in value.
If anyone else has done these calculations before, I would like to talk with you more about this.
I'm a math/physic graduate and currently thinking of taking my actuary exams. But in the mean time i'm an addictive gambler :p and decided to join this site to get an edge.
Thanks for reading
And thanks to PLP for this site!
Malcolm
Boxing in games because of "push games"
Re: Boxing in games because of "push games"
Hi Malcolm - there are a few lengthy threads on this topic, I'll let you read through them. The calculations will depend heavily on the assumptions you make - for example, it's unlikely you'll ever have a 7 game ticket where all 7 games are push lines.
PS I am an actuary (FCAS), feel free to PM me if you have questions about the exams or the profession.
PS I am an actuary (FCAS), feel free to PM me if you have questions about the exams or the profession.
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ProlinePlayer
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Re: Boxing in games because of "push games"
I think I answered most of this in the previous thread ?!?
I will just say though,
as far as I know the only way to determine if boxing a game is correct is to break down the parlay into all possible winning combinations. And then calculate the 'average' expected payout for the parlay. Work it out twice - one time with a boxed game and one time without. Which one gives the higher expected payout is the correct one.
The ParlayMaker program does break down the parlays in this way and determines the correct boxing strategy.
PLP
I will just say though,
as far as I know the only way to determine if boxing a game is correct is to break down the parlay into all possible winning combinations. And then calculate the 'average' expected payout for the parlay. Work it out twice - one time with a boxed game and one time without. Which one gives the higher expected payout is the correct one.
The ParlayMaker program does break down the parlays in this way and determines the correct boxing strategy.
PLP