How to calulating the win probility of outcomes?

[richhhh]

Hi friends newbie here , sorry if this question been ask before. How are win probability's being calculated? I have many questions but ill just start with one

[ProlinePlayer]

to start with a basic explanation of how the probabilities are determined is explained in the faq

If you have more questions on this let me know and I'll try to help.

PLP

[richhhh]

Sorry i should have been specific . I was hoping to see the formula for calculating win probability from a offshore line.
Thank you for the reply my new edgy friend
Rich

[ProlinePlayer]

ok

The following is how to convert the book lines to win probabilities. These methods work if the offshore line uses the same betting system as proline. Baseball, hockey soccer are fine. Others may be more difficult.

I'll use the TampaBay - Phoenix game for today's list
Pinnacle line is TampaBay +133 Phoenix - 144

Step 1
--------
Convert the lines to decimal odds. When doing any calculations it's always better to use the decimal odds as opposed to the vegas odds.
The formula for this is
(AmountRisked + AmountToWin) / AmountRisked
so for Tampa : (100 + 133) / 100 = 2.33
for Phoenix : (144 + 100) / 144 = 1.69

Step 2
--------
The line for the game also include the vig charged by the book. The next step is to find out how much vig there is.
To do this we figure out what the win percentage is for each team as if it was a fair line. Because of the vig the percentages will total to over 100%. The amount over is called the Over-round
the formula for this is
OverRound = (100 / VisitLine) + (100 / HomeLine)
or using the above
OverRound = (100/2.33) + (100/1.69) = 42.92 + 59.17 = 102.09

Step 3
--------
Using the over-round we can now work out the adjustment needed to correct the percentages to the vig removed values.
the formula for this is
PayoutShare = 100/OverRound
or using the above
PayoutShare = 100/102.09 = 0.98

Step 4
---------
And now we can redo the winpercent calculations with the amounts adjusted by the payoutshare
the formula for this is
WinPc = (100 / Line) * PayoutShare
or using the above
TampaBay Win% = (100 / 2.33) * 0.98 = 42.06%
Phoenix Win% = (100 / 1.69) * 0.98 = 57.99%

(those should add up to 100% of course. But for simplicity I rounded off everything to 2 decimal places throughout and unless I made an error above this would account for the slight discrepancy)

Hope this helps

PLP

[ProlinePlayer]

There is also a program available for download on my site which can do a lot of these calculations for you.

ProlineTools

that might also be helpful

PLP

[richhhh]

Thank you plp for taking the time to explain that in a very easy to understand way
I have been spending alot time on analyzing this stuff (way to much) and Like i said i have so many questions, but i am going to keep them one at a time.
I have been watching the forum and looking at the lle's. That leo is awsome for taking the time for posting that. But i have not had much problems with lle's because not only am i early to the store i also seem to been playing parleys with larger amounts of games and they have been going through the machines no problem. For example today all the parleys for 5 gamer pointspread hockey were lle. But i played 8/9 gamers and did not pose a problem at the machines and also i was more interested in collage football because i could play 12 gamers . Does not look like many edge player's are playing these 12 gamers and i have to wonder am i making a mistake? I understand the chances per ticket are low. but i dont care about that,edges are there. whatcha think about all this

Again thank you for your time
Rich

[MattyKGB]

Are you making a mistake playing 12 gamers? Maybe yes, maybe no...it depends on what your objective is. If you are looking at this as an investment, trying to gradually grow your bankroll over time - then yes, 12 gamers are a mistake because they are too high risk. If you are looking at this as a lottery ticket, spending a little bit of money in the hope of catching a big score, then 12 gamers are great - certainly better than a lotto 649 ticket!

[richhhh]

Hi matty, thank you for the reply new friend , my objective is without question to make money. I actually thought my 12 gamers (when they are available) would be preferred place to put my money. These were giving me the best edges available via parley maker and biggest bang for my buck when the lucky day come when all picks are correct, For variance and growth i realized there was less chance to build a slow steady bankroll . but i also thought maybe it would not make that huge of difference , say you are playing 5 gamers and your have 6 picks and you make combinations via parley maker that 5/6 would achieve profit (6 for 6 is obviously better) I kinda assumed that using combinations to go 10/13 was in the same neighborhood but with chance of the big cash 13/13. What is your thought guys?
Thank you again matty

[MattyKGB]

13/13 against the spread is VERY difficult to accomplish.

If you are playing edges, you will always win in the long run. The problem with playing such high-variance tickets is that it means the long run could very easily be years, or decades, or even longer. Especially with only 17 opportunities a year to play NFL pointspread.

[MattyKGB]

say you are playing 5 gamers and your have 6 picks and you make combinations via parley maker that 5/6 would achieve profit (6 for 6 is obviously better) I kinda assumed that using combinations to go 10/13 was in the same neighborhood

Assuming each game has a 55% win probability,

Chance of 5/6 or better = 16.4%
Chance of 10/13 or better = 9.3%.

While we're at it, chance of 13/13 is 0.000421 or 1 in 2,373. If you play every week during NFL season, you can expect to hit 13/13 once every 140 years.