NFL Scores Archives

[ProlinePlayer]

I've updated the NFL scores available in the Scores Archive section of the site.

The NFL scores (2000 -> 2012) now contain extensive stats for each game. These should be helpful in analyzing the NFL props cards.

If anyone has any suggestions as to improvements or additions on these let me know and I'll see what I can do.

PLP

[bangminton]

Looking good PLP, thanks for doing this!

Quick glance but I didn't see any of the Long Props e.g. Long Pass, Long Rush, Long Punt and Long FG. Is it possible to parse and include these Props, which has been a mainstay on the Props cards and should be available in the Fall again?

If not no biggie. I am interested in knowing how many times the Long Pass/Rush/Punt/FG has stayed Under a certain posted #.

[ProlinePlayer]

Looking good PLP, thanks for doing this!

Quick glance but I didn't see any of the Long Props e.g. Long Pass, Long Rush, Long Punt and Long FG. Is it possible to parse and include these Props, which has been a mainstay on the Props cards and should be available in the Fall again?

If not no biggie. I am interested in knowing how many times the Long Pass/Rush/Punt/FG has stayed Under a certain posted #.

yes these will be added

I hope that we'll be able to use these stats to set more accurate predicted totals.

And, perhaps more importantly, be able to access the value of the difference between the right number and the OLG number.

Quite often offshore numbers are being used for determining plays. But no-one really has any idea of how significant the differences are. Players are on things like total rush under because of a 7 point difference with the offshore line but I am often dubious that these differences are enough to lead to a real edge.

I'll keep you updated with my progress here.

PLP

[bangminton]

Thanks, this site has scores & stats going back to 1978 if you feel that will be better for the sample size

http://www.repole.com/sun4cast/data.html

Looking forward to another Props season, here's hoping they are not going to make many adjustments. I know they took away the correlations for the Super Bowl Props cards and I am curious to see the Total receiving yardages for CFL Players as opposed to Completions/Receptions but I guess we will find out what's going on in a few weeks.

[ChinMusic]

Quite often offshore numbers are being used for determining plays. But no-one really has any idea of how significant the differences are. Players are on things like total rush under because of a 7 point difference with the offshore line but I am often dubious that these differences are enough to lead to a real edge.

For rushing, I have always assumed about 1.25% chance of any specific outcome, at least when that outcome is near the listed number. Admittedly that is a complete guess, but it feels roughly right. And of course, if the listed number is very high, then the chance of any specific outcome would be smaller.

Having a large database of game logs would of course be the best way to work these kinds of things out.

[ProlinePlayer]

Quite often offshore numbers are being used for determining plays. But no-one really has any idea of how significant the differences are. Players are on things like total rush under because of a 7 point difference with the offshore line but I am often dubious that these differences are enough to lead to a real edge.

For rushing, I have always assumed about 1.25% chance of any specific outcome, at least when that outcome is near the listed number. Admittedly that is a complete guess, but it feels roughly right. And of course, if the listed number is very high, then the chance of any specific outcome would be smaller.

Having a large database of game logs would of course be the best way to work these kinds of things out.

My other problem with these is that prop bets generally get about zero action on these books. I've said before that experimenting at Pinnacle, I've found that very small wagers can cause a significant jump in the line.

I'm far from convinced that our usual reasoning for why edge plays work applies here.
Someone probably makes up these lines in the ten minutes in the morning that he uses to drink his first coffee. After all the limits are so low that no real harm can be done. Any bets come in move the line. Sharp bettors are not a factor because of the low limits, also it is my understanding that if you play and win at these things they will usually warn you off them. So any line moves could be the result of some guy who's had one beer too many.

In the end there is no real reason to believe that the offshore line is actually stronger than the OLG number. My opinion anyways, could be wrong, but have no evidence one way or the other.

plp

[P-Line Pinner]

Yes, small wagers can move the line, but the set # doesn't move.

For example, the other day Chin moved a line from -115 to -140 on a "small" wager. Still, there was a 40yd discrepancy between the set # (OLG = 240yds, TheGreek = 280yds). I would still play the OLG o240yds, even if TheGreek had it at u280yds -210.

Typically fer props I'm more interested in the discrepancy between the set #'s than the line (is this wrong of me?), since I'm well aware the line can shift easily from any bettor throwing a few hundy down on a prop....

Can we assume book set #'s are sharper than the OLG set #'s ???

[McGuire72]

Yes, small wagers can move the line, but the set # doesn't move.

For example, the other day Chin moved a line from -115 to -140 on a "small" wager. Still, there was a 40yd discrepancy between the set # (OLG = 240yds, TheGreek = 280yds). I would still play the OLG o240yds, even it TheGreek had it at u280yds -210.

Typically fer props I'm more interested in the discrepancy between the set #'s than the line (is this wrong of me?), since I'm well aware the line can shift easily from any bettor throwing a few hundy down on a prop....

Can we assume book set #'s are sharper than the OLG set #'s ???

When it's a major difference (ie: >20 yards), I would always assume the book's line is sharper than OLG's. When we're talking <10 yards, I would chalk that up somewhere in between. I would assume the book was still sharper, but the difference isn't enough to justify playing it as anything more than filler. There were some juicy lines a few weeks back for the Argos game though, and they paid off for us, so I think it's worth pursuing.

[P-Line Pinner]

Yah McG, that's the way I feel about em too. I just don't put much weight on where the line is at, since I know it's not a large market, and some drunk homer may have threw down $300 on his teams QB under, causing a "false edge" to us who are comparing OLG to Book lines....

But ya, those CFL props have been worth a looksie, and made me sum dough Can't wait fer NFL props (4+ Cards a week), and that period of overlap between CFL & NFL.... There's gunna be tons of Props Cards to play !!!

[bangminton]

Quite often offshore numbers are being used for determining plays. But no-one really has any idea of how significant the differences are. Players are on things like total rush under because of a 7 point difference with the offshore line but I am often dubious that these differences are enough to lead to a real edge.

For rushing, I have always assumed about 1.25% chance of any specific outcome, at least when that outcome is near the listed number. Admittedly that is a complete guess, but it feels roughly right. And of course, if the listed number is very high, then the chance of any specific outcome would be smaller.

Having a large database of game logs would of course be the best way to work these kinds of things out.

My other problem with these is that prop bets generally get about zero action on these books. I've said before that experimenting at Pinnacle, I've found that very small wagers can cause a significant jump in the line.

I'm far from convinced that our usual reasoning for why edge plays work applies here.
Someone probably makes up these lines in the ten minutes in the morning that he uses to drink his first coffee. After all the limits are so low that no real harm can be done. Any bets come in move the line. Sharp bettors are not a factor because of the low limits, also it is my understanding that if you play and win at these things they will usually warn you off them. So any line moves could be the result of some guy who's had one beer too many.

In the end there is no real reason to believe that the offshore line is actually stronger than the OLG number. My opinion anyways, could be wrong, but have no evidence one way or the other.

plp

PLP, going by your responses, I take that we will not see a Props section on your website anytime soon to compare OLG Props odds against book lines? Certainly not in time for this upcoming season?