Edge on Props
Edge on Props
I have spent a lot of time understanding how to calculate an edge on props. I feel like I have good understanding on props that can use Poison Distribution and thanks to Bangminton I have been able to calculate passing and rushing yards for football props. My question now is how does one calculate an edge on longest rush, longest pass or longest field goal? Any insight would be much appreciated, if someone doesn't feel like posting an answer in the forum maybe a private message?
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bangminton
- Posts: 2098
- Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:55 am
Re: Edge on Props
Six, I usually pair these Long Props with other correlations (QB/WR and long pass, RB and long rush and Total FG and long FG, back when they still offered Total FG, which seems so long ago!)
On their own, and this is just my opinion, but I don't believe the edge for these Long Props is strong enough for them to be used as a key, once again due to a number of variables that we need to take into account for NFL Props Handicapping.
Having said that, there are situations where we need to keep an eye out for e.g. super windy conditions will affect Long Pass and Long FG or games played in Denver where the FG will travel farther, due to the high altitude.
On their own, and this is just my opinion, but I don't believe the edge for these Long Props is strong enough for them to be used as a key, once again due to a number of variables that we need to take into account for NFL Props Handicapping.
Having said that, there are situations where we need to keep an eye out for e.g. super windy conditions will affect Long Pass and Long FG or games played in Denver where the FG will travel farther, due to the high altitude.