Using Kelly Criterion to Calculate Parlay Bet Sizing

[McGuire72]

Hey everyone,

Just wanted to pick peoples' brains about how to use Kelly to calculate parlay bet sizing. I use this Kelly calculator to come up with a ballpark figure for my bet sizing:

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

My main issue is, when I calculate my parlay numbers, the suggested bet sizing is much smaller than if I were to calculate the Kelly numbers for just the "main" edge play I am trying to exploit. So,for example, today I am focusing on:

COL V LAD TIE @ 4.00 (+23.8% as per PLP).

If I plug JUST that play into the Kelly calculator, it suggests a full Kelly play would be $1553. I never bet full Kelly, but this at least gives me an idea where I'm at.

However, as we all know, we must bet parlays with the provincial sports lotteries. So, one play I'm making today is:

COL V LAD TIE @ 4.00 (+23.8%)
LAA ML @ 2.55 (+0.8%)

When I punch these plays into the kelly calculator, it gives me a suggested Full-Kelly bet size of $409.

So my question for all of you is, how do I determine "proper" bet sizing given all these numbers? My usual strategy is to simply scale back my bet sizing and sprinkle smaller amounts (say, $100-150 each) on several different parlays, all keying on the best play(s) (in this case, COL/LAD Tie). This allows me to diversify my plays and most likely turn a profit so long as the top play comes through for me. I just wonder if there's a better way to calculate how much I should be betting? For example, if I diversified by plays into six different parlays at $150 each, that would be a total of $900 wagered, all hinging on the one play, which would in this case be equal to more than half-kelly (aka more than I want to put up).

My best angle tends to be just making enough different parlays to have my total wagers equal to or around half-kelly for the major play I am keying on (in this example, around $750), though I'm not sure if this is the most efficient/wisest way to handle my BR management. Would I be better off betting half-kelly for each individual parlay, and ignoring the suggested Kelly numbers for the single main edges?

Thanks in advance for any advice!

[richhhh]

In my opinion it sounds like you know what you are doing. Obviously if your second play is -ev you should account for that. Plp parlay maker does do this for you.

You getting spoiled over there or what? I just checked it out.


PROLINE PARLAYS September 15, 2015 08:14 PM Parlays Payout PayAvg WinProb PlEdge BetSize 614V -622V -618T 23.04 23.04 5.46 +26% $186 614V -622V -618V -625V 57.09 57.09 2.07 +18% $52 614V -622V -620T 20.16 20.16 6.04 +22% $181 614V -622V -686V 27.84 27.84 4.17 +16% $95 614V -622V -678V 51.20 51.20 2.26 +15% $49 618T -620T 11.34 11.34 10.70 +21% $329 618T -686V 15.66 15.66 7.39 +16% $170 618T -678V 28.80 28.80 4.00 +15% $87 618V -625V -620T 28.10 28.10 4.07 +14% $84 620T -686V 13.70 13.70 8.17 +12% $149 620T -678V 25.20 25.20 4.42 +11% $75 614V -622V -618T -620T 72.58 72.58 1.88 +36% $81 614V -622V -618T -686V 100.22 100.22 1.30 +30% $48 614V -622V -618T -678V 184.32 184.32 0.70 +29% $25 614V -622V -618V -625V -620T 179.83 179.83 0.71 +28% $25 614V -622V -618V -625V -686V 248.33 248.33 0.49 +22% $14 614V -622V -618V -625V -678V 456.70 456.70 0.27 +22% $7 614V -622V -620T -686V 87.70 87.70 1.43 +26% $47 614V -622V -620T -678V 161.28 161.28 0.78 +25% $25 614V -622V -686V -678V 222.72 222.72 0.54 +19% $14 618T -620T -686V 49.33 49.33 2.54 +25% $83 618T -620T -678V 90.72 90.72 1.38 +25% $44 618T -686V -678V 125.28 125.28 0.95 +19% $24 618V -625V -620T -686V 122.23 122.23 0.97 +18% $23 618V -625V -620T -678V 224.78 224.78 0.52 +17% $12 618V -625V -686V -678V 310.42 310.42 0.36 +12% $6 620T -686V -678V 109.62 109.62 1.05 +15% $22 614V -622V -618T -620T -686V 315.71 315.71 0.45 +41% $20 614V -622V -618T -620T -678V 580.61 580.61 0.24 +40% $11 614V -622V -618T -686V -678V 801.79 801.79 0.17 +34% $6 614V -622V -618V -625V -620T -686V 782.25 782.25 0.17 +33% $6 614V -622V -618V -625V -620T -678V 1438.62 1438.62 0.09 +32% $3 614V -622V -618V -625V -686V -678V 1986.66 1986.66 0.06 +26% $2 614V -622V -620T -686V -678V 701.57 701.57 0.18 +29% $6 618T -620T -686V -678V 394.63 394.63 0.33 +29% $11 618V -625V -620T -686V -678V 977.81 977.81 0.12 +21% $3

[McGuire72]

Thanks for the feedback richhh. It's all good out here. Two play parlays are the sweetest, and last night was no exception with 618T and 620T. It looks like we're all profiting off Dinamo Zagreb today as well!