MLB- Win probability

The math of winning at proline. Edge play, bankroll management and related issues.
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pedge
Posts: 1242
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:15 am

MLB- Win probability

Post by pedge » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:27 pm

Found this site : http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx

(Click on today's date to reveal the win probability)


Here is their article that describes the above website: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-game-odds/


"The Game Odds is our model’s prediction about the chance each team has to win the game based on the quality of the starting pitchers and lineups, plus home field advantage. The numbers are probably a little overly precise, but they are a fun tool for you to get a sense of which team is stronger according to their projected talent level."

Opinions?
Last edited by pedge on Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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richhhh
Posts: 2338
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:01 pm

Re: MLB- Win probability

Post by richhhh » Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:04 pm

I took a quick peek, I noticed blue jays estimated win% is 52.5% via website and pinnys estimate win% is 59.3%. If the jays line at pinny closes near 52% Ill take a another glace :D

pedge
Posts: 1242
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:15 am

Re: MLB- Win probability

Post by pedge » Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:09 pm

bump. i noticed that once the lineups are revealed of a team, they seem to be nearly equal to pinnys line.

Doing some googling to see if someone backtested these win probabilities... i don't know if they include last minute player injuries..

edit: updated the page links.


in order to backtest, you can see the win probability of any game on any day by modifying the following url: http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard ... 2016-04-25

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