Does anyone use this formula? any opinions on it?
http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/2013 ... seball.htm
BBL - Pythagorean Formula
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ProlinePlayer
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Re: BBL - Pythagorean Formula
This has been around for a while and is a possible useful tool.
I would rate the article though as very bad
)
The problem in using this as a predict method is that too many other factors contribute to an individual game. Pitchers as a small example. This formula would be more useful in predicting a season's total wins and betting this prop at the beginning of the season.
Of course any use of this is limited to offshore betting. For proline purposes, a simple formula like this is never going to give as accurate a probability as just looking at the offshore line.
PLP
I would rate the article though as very bad
The above statement is ridiculous and I sort of loss interest in the article at that point. (Since this is only the second or third line in that's pretty badThe theory behind the method is that teams which won more games or fewer games than expected could be good wagers to see a reversal.
)The problem in using this as a predict method is that too many other factors contribute to an individual game. Pitchers as a small example. This formula would be more useful in predicting a season's total wins and betting this prop at the beginning of the season.
Of course any use of this is limited to offshore betting. For proline purposes, a simple formula like this is never going to give as accurate a probability as just looking at the offshore line.
PLP
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ProlinePlayer
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- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: BBL - Pythagorean Formula
Being curious, I clicked another couple of links.
There is an amazing article on 'Regression Toward The Mean'
Here's a brief explanation of the concept
Again not only is this total nonsense but this is nowhere near an accurate explantion of 'Regression toward the mean' and it is certainly not an example of a realistic application of the principle.
Where do these experts come from.
Sorry to come across so rude but the writer labels himself as a 'Sports Gambling Expert' and meanwhile seems to have no clue.
PLP
There is an amazing article on 'Regression Toward The Mean'
Here's a brief explanation of the concept
I just love it!Regression towards the mean is simply a way of stating that things tend to even out over time, or at least gravitate towards their norms.
If a .500 baseball team at the All-Star break wins eight games in a row coming out of the break, regression to the mean would indicate that they are more likely to go 2-10 in their next 12 games than 10-2. There is a reason they were a .500 team for the first half of the season and barring any new circumstances, such as a player returning from injury or the acquisition of a key player through trade, they should play close to .500 for the remainder of the season.
In the NFL, a team that has a huge game one week is likely to come back down to earth a bit in its next game. It may be a case of a letdown, but it is also an example of a team regressing to the mean.
Again not only is this total nonsense but this is nowhere near an accurate explantion of 'Regression toward the mean' and it is certainly not an example of a realistic application of the principle.
Where do these experts come from.
Sorry to come across so rude but the writer labels himself as a 'Sports Gambling Expert' and meanwhile seems to have no clue.
PLP
Re: BBL - Pythagorean Formula
What the hell its the web, accuracy, factual information is secondary.