Although not of any use till next year. While I was away I had a bit of spare time and ran some numbers on team giveaways. Following is just basic stuff but will share for anyone interested.
NHL PROPS - Giveaways Results Report 04/22/2014
Years : 2007 -> 2013
Total Games : 8082
----- Results (Average) -----
Giveaways
Visit Giveaways Per Game : 6.56
Home Giveaways Per Game : 9.37
----- Results (Median) -----
Visit Giveaways Per Game
2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5
-----|----------|----------|--------------|--------------|----------|----------|-----
82.79% 73.24% 63.30% 53.54% 44.53% 36.03% 28.63%
Home Giveaways Per Game
5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5
-----|----------|----------|--------------|--------------|----------|----------|-----
76.84% 68.67% 60.58% 52.07% 44.05% 36.96% 30.80%
I was surprised that there was such a jump in the rate of giveaways for the home team. My offhand thoughts on this were along the lines that these were probably just random occurrences and that there would not be a significant difference between home and away.
But this seems to indicate that being at home actually hurts the home team (a lot) in this stat!?!?!
Any thoughts on why this would be?
PLP
NHL Giveaways - some data
Re: NHL Giveaways - some data
My 2 theories with absolutely no evidence to back them up:
1) Scorers must record the player who had the giveaway, not just the team. With fast action and greater familiarity with the home team's players, this may be easier to do with the home team.
2) Scorers may be more likely to record would-be V giveaways as H takeaways instead because it makes the home team look better.
1) Scorers must record the player who had the giveaway, not just the team. With fast action and greater familiarity with the home team's players, this may be easier to do with the home team.
2) Scorers may be more likely to record would-be V giveaways as H takeaways instead because it makes the home team look better.
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ProlinePlayer
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Re: NHL Giveaways - some data
NHL PROPS - Giveaways Results Report 04/22/2014
Years : 2007 -> 2013
Total Games : 8082
COMPARISON OF GIVEAWAYS - PAST AVERAGES TO ACTUAL RESULTS
Games Giveaways
Made
4 358 4.80
5 1198 5.40
6 2009 6.21
7 3050 7.13
8 3341 7.92
9 2292 8.81
10 2041 9.58
11 1013 10.20
12 502 11.42
13 260 11.93
14 44 12.08
and another chart. This one is designed to check how predictive past results are for future games. It is not always so simple as taking past averages and assuming that this is an indication of expected future results. It does not always work that way - some stats show up more as randomness than predictive.
The first column above shows the team's average giveaways/game in past results and then how they fared in the game.
This table appears (more later) to show that we can predict a game's giveaways based on the team's past history. This very surprised me as I would have expected that this stat is more a case of measuring 'accidents' and would not be something that is neccessarily repeated in future games.
PLP
and another chart. This one is designed to check how predictive past results are for future games. It is not always so simple as taking past averages and assuming that this is an indication of expected future results. It does not always work that way - some stats show up more as randomness than predictive.
The first column above shows the team's average giveaways/game in past results and then how they fared in the game.
This table appears (more later) to show that we can predict a game's giveaways based on the team's past history. This very surprised me as I would have expected that this stat is more a case of measuring 'accidents' and would not be something that is neccessarily repeated in future games.
PLP
-
ProlinePlayer
- Site Admin
- Posts: 2076
- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: NHL Giveaways - some data
NHL PROPS - Giveaways Results Report 04/22/2014
Years : 2007 -> 2013
Total Games : 8082
COMPARISON OF GIVEAWAYS - PAST AVERAGES TO ACTUAL RESULTS
Games Giveaways
Made
4 182 5.79
5 589 6.49
6 1001 6.58
7 1532 6.55
8 1672 6.67
9 1137 6.58
10 1038 6.40
11 504 6.60
12 245 6.72
13 129 6.82
14 24 7.24
I didn't like the results for the chart in the previous post - the numbers just don't look believable to me. So I ran it again with a change. It has been suggested that 'scoring bias' plays a big factor in recording of giveaways. So for this run I used only the results for the visiting team. My thinking being that this way we could for the most part even out any bias.
Quite a difference and more like what I had expected to see. Although there is still a difference in results due to previous games stats the range is a lot less than the first chart showed.
PLP
I didn't like the results for the chart in the previous post - the numbers just don't look believable to me. So I ran it again with a change. It has been suggested that 'scoring bias' plays a big factor in recording of giveaways. So for this run I used only the results for the visiting team. My thinking being that this way we could for the most part even out any bias.
Quite a difference and more like what I had expected to see. Although there is still a difference in results due to previous games stats the range is a lot less than the first chart showed.
PLP
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ProlinePlayer
- Site Admin
- Posts: 2076
- Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am
Re: NHL Giveaways - some data
Clever!MattyKGB wrote:My 2 theories with absolutely no evidence to back them up:
1) Scorers must record the player who had the giveaway, not just the team. With fast action and greater familiarity with the home team's players, this may be easier to do with the home team.
2) Scorers may be more likely to record would-be V giveaways as H takeaways instead because it makes the home team look better.
I like theory 2 best.
PLP