Kelly criterion

The math of winning at proline. Edge play, bankroll management and related issues.
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red_falcon
Posts: 311
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:17 am

Kelly criterion

Post by red_falcon » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:35 pm

Saw this yesterday. It's an article by PlusEVAnalytics.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... d&aup=True

If this is true, does that mean the PLP program has been providing an incorrect Kelly wager for soccer games (ie soccer visitor win and soccer tie that has +EV)?

Red.
Last edited by red_falcon on Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bangminton
Posts: 1475
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:55 am

Re: Kelly criterion

Post by bangminton » Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:21 pm

Red, are you playing full KC, half KC, 1/4 KC or flat bet for your ProLine combos, in particular the ones that have SCR edges, knowing full well they are very volatile and are not as stable and not as easy to hedge, as say totals for other sports?

MattyKGB
Posts: 214
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2013 5:27 pm

Re: Kelly criterion

Post by MattyKGB » Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:19 am

Hey guys- sorry, haven't been posting much on here but life gets in the way sometimes! I wrote that article and it obviously has lots of proline applications. Short answer is yes - what's in parlay maker is an approximation, not the real Kelly Criterion. Let me know if you have any other questions!

red_falcon
Posts: 311
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2013 6:17 am

Re: Kelly criterion

Post by red_falcon » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:12 am

bangminton wrote:Red, are you playing full KC, half KC, 1/4 KC or flat bet for your ProLine combos, in particular the ones that have SCR edges, knowing full well they are very volatile and are not as stable and not as easy to hedge, as say totals for other sports?
Hey Bang,

Currently, its 1/4KC. I don't have a big bankroll compared to others, but it's chugging along. As for SCR edges, it all depends on PLPlayer but the volatility like you said can be huge.

Red.

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richhhh
Posts: 2184
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:01 pm

Re: Kelly criterion

Post by richhhh » Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:20 pm

Matty your a boss.


I did my tedious trial and error calculations with Matty's articles example with soccer v+.5@2.5@44%wp. Full Kelly would not allow a bust but simply droping to half kelly produced 10 times less 66% percent bankroll dips. I Say no to maximum expected growth :lol:

dearnasty
Posts: 178
Joined: Sun May 05, 2013 11:56 am

Re: Kelly criterion

Post by dearnasty » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:33 pm

richhhh wrote:Matty your a boss.
This ^^^^

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