Kelly criterion

[red_falcon]

Saw this yesterday. It's an article by PlusEVAnalytics.

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... d&aup=True

If this is true, does that mean the PLP program has been providing an incorrect Kelly wager for soccer games (ie soccer visitor win and soccer tie that has +EV)?

Red.

[bangminton]

Red, are you playing full KC, half KC, 1/4 KC or flat bet for your ProLine combos, in particular the ones that have SCR edges, knowing full well they are very volatile and are not as stable and not as easy to hedge, as say totals for other sports?

[MattyKGB]

Hey guys- sorry, haven't been posting much on here but life gets in the way sometimes! I wrote that article and it obviously has lots of proline applications. Short answer is yes - what's in parlay maker is an approximation, not the real Kelly Criterion. Let me know if you have any other questions!

[red_falcon]

Red, are you playing full KC, half KC, 1/4 KC or flat bet for your ProLine combos, in particular the ones that have SCR edges, knowing full well they are very volatile and are not as stable and not as easy to hedge, as say totals for other sports?

Hey Bang,

Currently, its 1/4KC. I don't have a big bankroll compared to others, but it's chugging along. As for SCR edges, it all depends on PLPlayer but the volatility like you said can be huge.

Red.

[richhhh]

Matty your a boss.


I did my tedious trial and error calculations with Matty's articles example with soccer v+.5@2.5@44%wp. Full Kelly would not allow a bust but simply droping to half kelly produced 10 times less 66% percent bankroll dips. I Say no to maximum expected growth

[dearnasty]

Matty your a boss.

This ^^^^