Soccer & Poisson?

[MattyKGB]

Champions League final odds, courtesy of Pinny:

V -132
H +390
D +304

Total 2.5 and 3, -104/-104.

Assuming a Poisson distribution and an efficient V/H/D line, there is a +14% edge on the under.

Assuming a Poisson distribution and an efficient total, there is a +0.5% edge on the V and a +0.3% edge on the H.

So what's going on here? Are goals really Poisson? Based on my 5 minutes of research, some places (http://www.soccermetrics.net/paper-disc ... sson-study) say yes, and some places (https://annabet.com/blog/soccer-goal-pr ... tribution/) say that there are, in practice, more ties than Poisson predicts. However, it could be the case that that's only true in regular season games where teams may play conservatively in the last few minutes, hoping for the tie - not a factor in a winner take all game like the CL final. However, the odds do imply a higher tie probability than Poisson would suggest.

Betfair odds are similar to Pinny's.

So who's wrong here - the markets or Poisson?

[Arch]

Great questions Matty, Im no where near qualified to answer who is "Right and who is wrong" But as a soccer observer of CL finals the teams to tend to play alot more conservative in the finals and when they have a lead they try to defend and sit on it and hit only on the counter attack as oppose to pressing forward alot assuming no reds have been given.

These 2 Clubs know each others style very well so thats even more reason for BOTH clubs to try and feel eachother out and play very tight formation/tactics.
I may be wrong but I doubt we see the draw close higher then it is currently. I wouldt be shocked if we see Under 4.00 odds at gametime.

Just my 2 cents, Great Thread Matty

[Arch]

Interesting video on market inefficiency in the SCR totals markets especially "in game".