Need GB to win Oct. 9 pool. Advice please...

[bangminton]

Thanks for the heads-up, rich! I managed to get in some.

Man they are just flying off the shelves!

[richhhh]

It certainly did not last long Bang. I believe I caught them the second they went up on the website. Think it was one hour and everything was gone and I dunno how many in total were offered. Interestingly the Mlse gift cards have been delivered which usually take a week or 2.

New message now. Be interesting to see what presents we get next month. I am thinking its possible we get one batch of crap a month that gets scooped up in minutes. But do not worry you can also toss your points in draws which is essentially a garbage can. Well see tho maybe they will have a Tesla or something. I would put my money on guessing OLG gift cards.

[bangminton]

OLG has spent some of their budget to market this program so I would be very surprised if it will be canned altogether so soon, rich.

I do agree with you, it sounds to me they are moving towards a monthly (or bi-weekly) restock approach, less costly for them but still dangling the carrot to entice players to continue to visit the stores and scan their tickets in for the Points.

They were restocking the gift cards multiple times a week before and simply put, that was just not a sustainable model.

Be interesting to see what else they may offer us, with the holiday season approaching. Now is the time to aggressively market this program to get players to spend their $ in the stores. Things will quiet down after the Super Bowl (It always has been the case, not just due to this program), from a betting perspective.

[bangminton]

Its absolutely possible to win with one ticket. Groups boxing 10 games should welcomed with open arms in the pool. Wish there was more.

NFL Pools Pot has taken a real nose-dive in the past few weeks, staying under $400K, rich. I do recall Matty tweeting (or writing something on his blog) along the line that the Pot needs to be at least $500K or more for it to be +EV.

None of the bettor I regularly communicate with on Twitter (or other platforms) is playing Pools anymore because A) it's incredibly hard to win and B) there are easier/better way to make scratch.

I will keep an eye out for the viability of this Product, moving forward. The pot used to hover well above $800K a few years ago and now it's less than half of that. Poster *walks* on CM used to easily drop $10K on any given week, as part of a group boxing games, but he publicly acknowledged on the forum he has not done so for the past couple of years. Multiple that by a few other groups and you have $100K knocked off the pot right there. It is what it is. Time are a changin'...

[richhhh]

My 2 cents....

Matty of coarse is likey correct with anything he says or touches however one cannot know exactly the conditions needed to be +ev with pools especially in the future. The dynamics change. Sharp money stops playing your edge increases,people use the random picks feature your edge decreases etc... If the money leaving the pool is just people who box a bunch of picks that would make the pool much weaker. Do not get me wrong the people boxing 10 games then picking favs is likely dead money as well but not as dead as the people picking all favourites and only boxing 2-4.

I do not play these with any seriousness. $140 a week for many years now. However it I had to guess this is still beatable long term. It just comes down to how bad your competition is. If these were daily and not just 18 times a year I imagine I would play them daily for more $. I have not even looked at a payouts this year but when favourites win you gain a lot of information about current pool condition's.

[bangminton]

I hear ya rich, I am just reporting what I have observed in the past few years. COVID no doubt had some impact on Pools. The legalization of sports betting no doubt had some impact as well.

I have not seen Jeffrey Csima's name (subject of Matty's blog post) published as Pools winners for a number of years now. On this very forum, leo also publicly acknowledged he stopped playing Pools. Both have been multiple Pools winners in the past and I have no doubt in my mind both dropped significant chunk of coins each week to get the ultimate prize. Unsure if they stopped playing because they don't think Pools is +EV anymore or if they have bigger fishes to fry. Again I am just reporting what I saw.

[kbet]

anybody got NHL shop to trade for MLSE?

[pacer]

Just another typical week as Washington &**^&* me. Not sure of the payout but this has to be 5 weeks where I have had a huge favourite beat me. I am gonna win this pool yet ......

[richhhh]

Yes sir i will trade ya. How many you got?

[kbet]

Thanks Rich, but I managed a trade already. Do you have any NFL Shop? I've got a ton of MLSE, and might be in the market for a trade at a later date. Let's see what December brings in the next reward offering. I figure in the worst case, I can use them up at RealSports and "e11even", and I'm going to Raptors and Leafs in February. $1000+