About player edges...

Any questions, comments about the odds/edges pages of the prolineplayer.com web site
Post Reply
pedge
Posts: 1242
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:15 am

About player edges...

Post by pedge » Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:21 am

Is the player edge formula also considering OLG's House edge of point spread?

ProlinePlayer
Site Admin
Posts: 2076
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am

Re: About player edges...

Post by ProlinePlayer » Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:13 am

hi pedge and welcome to the forum.

From your question I gather that you understand how proline edges are calculated - a combination of a game's win probability and the the proline payout. However in pointspread there is no actual payout provided per game.

This does complicate things and the values shown on the website are really only approximations designed to 'fit in' with the other material and make it easy to spot the better plays.

We can use an average payout by using the formula - Payout^(1/NumOfGames)
or for a 5 team pointspread parlay the payout per game is 20 ^ (1/5) = 1.8206
or for a 3 team 5 ^ (1/3) = 1.710

As you can see the average would vary depending on number of games used. On the site (for OLG) the 5 team payout is used to calculate the edges. A more precise way to calculate pointspread edges is to use the ProlineParlayMaker program available to members - this will accurately calculate the edge for each parlay.

Also more detailed explanations are available at
http://www.prolineplayer.com/Reports/Po ... d-Odds.php
and
http://www.prolineplayer.com/Articles/P ... Basics.php

hope that helps

PLP

pedge
Posts: 1242
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:15 am

Re: About player edges...

Post by pedge » Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:08 am

Hey PLP,

I was referring to the payout for the pointspread. If you visit this site, http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/ and scroll down a bit to the heading "Parlays". You can see that the payout for a 5 team parlay and the house edge. We only get paid (wager * 20), while we are supposed to be getting paid out more.

ProlinePlayer
Site Admin
Posts: 2076
Joined: Sun Mar 31, 2013 6:33 am

Re: About player edges...

Post by ProlinePlayer » Sun Oct 05, 2014 11:09 am

pedge wrote:Hey PLP,

I was referring to the payout for the pointspread. If you visit this site, http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/ and scroll down a bit to the heading "Parlays". You can see that the payout for a 5 team parlay and the house edge. We only get paid (wager * 20), while we are supposed to be getting paid out more.
Yes I understand.

The Olg uses a much higher house edge then bookies do. The house edge for pointspread parlays generally runs at about 40% and yes this is accounted for in the edge calculations. You can find the house edge for OLG Pointspread in the column labelled 'Win Expect' here
http://www.prolineplayer.com/Reports/Po ... hp#Ontario

As I say though, this is accounted for in the edge calculations

PLP

pedge
Posts: 1242
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2014 11:15 am

Re: About player edges...

Post by pedge » Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:44 pm

thank you for the clarification!

Post Reply